Best Visual Effects: I figured I would start with something pretty easy and largely not controversial, and if you were one of the two main groups that flocked to go see Ang Lee's Life of Pi (Asians and fans of the book), then you will completely understand what I am about to say. I hate 3D. In fact, I don't think there has ever been a time when I went to go see a movie and was extremely excited to go through almost two hours with some strange plastic object annoying my nose, watching something that was just as enjoyable without the lovely wallet-dent of fifteen bucks. However, Life of Pi is the only movie I have seen in 3D that has ever fully justified its use to me. Ang Lee produces moments gasp-inducing beauty and wonder that were fantastic to behold not once but all of the three occasions I saw it. Looking at the other nominees on the list: Prometheus, The Hobbit, The Avengers and Snow White and the Huntsman-it's a shoo in.
Who should win: Life of Pi
Who will win: Life of Pi
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay): And of all of a sudden things get very difficult indeed. 2012 was the best movie year ever and possessed a unique balance of both adapted screenplays and new original work. The problem for me is that the Adapted Screenplay division of the Best Writing award is probably as stacked as it has ever been. Argo, Lincoln, Life of Pi, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Silver Linings Playbook are all up for this one, and coincidentally are all up for best picture, making this a potential indicator of the night's biggest prize.For me, the award is a close decision between Argo, Life of Pi and Lincoln. When I first saw Argo, its writing was probably what impressed me the most- the steady flow of smart, crisp and quick dialogue pushing the drama along in a way that I never would have imagined from a Ben Affleck film. But the actual task of the adaptation of Argo's story is not quite as impressive for me, as the real-life story of a CIA agent rescuing foreign service officers from Iran by posing as a movie crew, is something that cries out to be made into a movie- the material is all there. One film that had the hardest task was definitely Life of Pi, with writer David Magee bringing to life a format of storytelling that can at times be confusing even in the book the movie is based on. Such was the nature of the book, that people claimed it to be "unfilmable", but such is the nature of the Oscars that it will probably lose out to Spielberg's Lincoln. In many ways, Lincoln is everything the Oscars want for a sweep of the night's awards. A movie about one of the greatest Presidents this country has ever seen, dealing with one of the greatest conflicts this nation has ever seen. But Lincoln, is also one of Spielberg's smartest ever films, zipping along in a snappiness that reminds you of an Aaron Sorkin work. It'll be a close one, but even if Lincoln loses on the night's biggest prizes, it will pull this one out.
Who should win: Life of Pi
Who will probably win: Lincoln
Best Writing (Original Screenplay): This one is slightly less difficult in that less of the movies in this category are up for Best Picture awards. Amour, Django, Moonrise Kingdom, Flight and Zero Dark Thirty are the nominees, and they represent a wide selection of genres and sorts of movies. Django, while being one of my favourite movies of the year definitely won't win and probably shouldn't. It is a great movie for sure, but nothing really about it's writing was anything out of the ordinary for a Quentin Tarantino film (other than the fact the story is actually shot sequentially), and since the Oscars have been less than nice to his films in the past, there is no reason to suspect they will now. Moonrise Kingdom, represents a summer love affair with the critical community that has now been largely forgotten after so many other fine girls walked into our lives. While being a quirky, refreshingly bizarre film, it's more likely to become a cult classic than an Oscar win for Original Screenplay. Amour and Flight represent fantastic dramas of the melancholy kind, but are better defined for the ability of their stars (Emmanuelle Riva and Denzel Washington respectively) to bring the writing to life than the writing itself. Zero Dark Thirty's Oscar appeal has taken a hit because of qualms about the torture scenes shown in it, but American squeamishness about tactics that eventually resulted in wild celebrations around the country aside, it is both a deserving and predictable winner, with writing and dialogue that checks all the boxes of a political drama based on the greatest manhunt of our time.
Who should win: Zero Dark Thirty
Who will win: Zero Dark Thirty
Sound Editing nominees: Argo, Life of Pi, Django, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty
Who will win : Zero Dark Thirty
Sound Mixing nominees: Argo, Les Mis, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall
Who will win : Les Mis.
Short Film (Live Action): The nominees for this award this year have all been rather good with Asad, Buzkashi Boys, Curfew, Henry and Death of a Shadow all being interesting to watch. However for me, Asad, the story of a young boy dealing with some pretty tough choices in Somalia is the likely winner even though Buzkashi Boys, the story of two boys living in Afghanistan, is also rather powerful. However because of the similarity The Academy will see between it and full length features of the past such as The Kite Runner, Buzkashi Boys will most likely get screwed, just as is the case for Henry, whose similarity to this year's Amour will hurt it.
Who will win: Asad.
Short Film (Animated): The animated short films are always some of my favourites to watch as they often have really interesting story-lines most of the time with very little to no dialogue at all. This year's nominees are no different but there are two very clear front runners in Paperman (which has become a bit of an internet sensation) and Head over Heels. Paperman is Walt Disney's entry this year, showing the black and white story of two office workers whose getting together is aided by paper. While the premise is a little weird, there is no one else in the category that can even touch it save Head over heels- a similarly romantic piece (albeit with more depth) about the emotional distance between an older married couple. Paperman is the clear favourite but the Oscars like surprises, especially up against mega-giants like Disney.
Who should win: Head over Heels
Who will win: Paperman
Production Design: I'm not ashamed to say I had to look up what this award even was. In a nutshell it's the overall visual design and feel of the movie, through sets, costumes- the whole enchilada. Given its attention to detail and the complexity of the time it's in Lincoln will probably outpace Les Mis on this one easily.
Who should and will win: Lincoln
Best Original Song: If there was one award that could sum up the apparent ambivalence of the critical community towards Les Mis it is probably this one. "Suddenly", a piece added to an already long (but awesome) musical just for the sake of winning an award, has been completely out-staged by the introduction song to Skyfall. There's not a person on earth that doesn't think Adele won't win, and she doesn't stuff will go down.
Winner (period): Skyfall
Musical Score: For such an epic film John Williams score to Lincoln was extremely underwhelming. In fact. I would probably go as far to say that it sucked, but I love his other music far too much. Thus with no other real contenders in the field, Life of Pi will probably win this one, although even its score wasn't that amazing.
Who should and will win: Life of Pi
Foreign Language Film: Another one not even up for discussion. Typically when a foreign film is in the discussion for a lot of other Oscars, the one it'll probably win is this one. Amour for the win.
Winner (by a landslide): Amour
Film Editing: This one's a toughie but I'll play it safe and go with Argo. One of the better aspects of the film are the crisp transitions that add to the building drama and tension.
Who should and will win: Argo
Documentary Short: This is category is one of my favourites, mostly just because the documentaries shown are always pretty powerful. This year's presumptive favourites are no different, my favourite being Mondays at Racine- a film about women fighting cancer who meet at a beauty salon. Another big contender is Inocente, a film about a homeless immigrant that seemed to give everyone pause for thought when I saw it in the cinema.
Who should win: Inocente
Who will win: Mondays at Racine
Documentary Feature: This one is probably the reason I have waiting so long to make my predictions. It's one thing to watch all of the shorts because they're not that long and luckily for me were shown at my local cinema. It is another to try and find some of these documentaries, but luckily the internet is a wonderful place. In my mind there really is no competition and "Five Broken Cameras" really should win. Director Ernad Burnat, is a Palestinian living in a small village in the West Bank and his film chronicles the struggles his people encounter with encroaching Israeli settlements. Burnat gets his first camera to film his son's birth in 2005, but ends up using it to film the conflict over a few years. Every now and then one of Burnat's cameras get broken, most of the time because Israeli soldiers don't want him filming. Edited and put together by his friend, Israeli director Guy Davidi, Burnat's documentary is extremely powerful.
Random tidbit: Burnat and his family were actually detained at LAX this past week en-route to the Oscars because airport security didn't believe such a regular looking Palestinian guy had been nominated for an academy award.
Who should and will win: Five Broken Cameras
Directing: This one really could be a crapshoot, but there are ways to find a winner out of Lincoln, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Amour, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook...or not. In any case Steven Spielberg has only won Best Director when the movie has won Best Picture once- for Schindler's List. Even perhaps more interesting is that he has never won Best Director when one of his stars has won Best Actor, meaning that if Lincoln wins Best Actor and Best Picture, then it would be highly unlikely for him to win Best Director as well. Ang Lee did an extraordinary job with Life of Pi, but again is unlikely to win both Best Picture and Best Director. The dark houses, mainly David O. Russell (Silver Linings) and Benh Zeitlin (Beasts) have legitimate chances to spring a surprise, with Zeitlin leading the charge in that sense with the little movie that could. I
Who I really want to win: Benh Zeitlin (Beasts)
Who could win: Ang Lee
Wish you were here: Ben Affleck (Argo)
Who will win: Steven Spielberg
Costume Design: I'll throw Les Mis a bone.
Cinematography: This one is a pretty foregone conclusion and accurately describes one of my rules of the night: give the visual awards to Life of Pi when Argo isn't nominated.
Who should and will win: Life of Pi
Animated Feature Film: We've been longing for an introspective look at the video game world forever, and we got it in the tale of a video game character that wants to be something more. Popular appeal may hurt it but I feel it is a much better movie than Brave, which I consider a bit of a miss for Pixar.
Who should win : Wreck it Ralph
Who will win: Wreck it Ralph
Best Supporting Actress : And to think I was beginning to roar through these. Amy Adams was pretty darn good in The Master, although because it is the one out of these that I saw most recently I could be biased. Jacki Weaver was good in Silver Linings Playbook, but I didn't walk away from the theatre thinking she had produced a better performance than anyone else in the movie, which is also a tribute to the wealth of acting in it. Sally Fields, did a fantastic job, even if Mrs. Lincoln annoyed the hell out of me. The clear winner in this one though will by Anne Hathaway, whose turn as Fantine is probably the only thing everyone in the world agrees was absolutely scintillating in Les Mis.
Who should and will win: Anne Hathaway
Best Supporting Actor: This award is probably more about who isn't being talked about to win than who will win. Alan Arkin by far was and is the best person to win this award, however his acting style isn't one that normally wins academy awards. For this reason alone, Tommy Lee Jones will probably win for Lincoln, as his role was the more dramatic- giving him tons of impassioned speeches and soundbites that ultimately trump the golden line "Arrgoo F*** yourself".
Who should win: Alan Arkin
Who will win: Tommy Lee Jones
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence must know this is her award to lose and she represents a breed that is rare among actresses, being both a critical and box office love-child. However we all know the Oscars have a habit of giving lifetime achievement awards to people and it is in this regard that my feminine namesake, Emmanuelle Riva could very possibly win. However, my favourite nominee has to be Quvanzhae Wallis, star of Beasts of the Southern Wild, and arguably responsible for the film's entire critical success Unfortunately for her, a nomination probably is as much as the Academy will give her this time round, much like Jennifer Lawrence's nomination for Winters Bone a couple years ago.
I think I'll start the surprises.
Shock winner : Emmanuelle Riva
Best Actor: A really tough year to be a leading man. Any of the nominees would have won in previous years, but this one is obvious.
Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Picture: So this is where I see the night's biggest upset, in perhaps one of the biggest crapshoots ever at the Oscars. I'll spare you my justifications and just give you my predictions:
Sore loser: Lincoln
Winner: Argo, followed by wild celebrations and proof once and for all that Ben Affleck actually did help Matt Damon write Good Will Hunting.
Thanks for reading
ReplyDeleteI can tell you're a Brit; whereabouts you from?
ReplyDeleteI suppose certain phrasing and spellings give me away. I'm from london, although life has since lead me abroad.
ReplyDeletewhere you live now honey?
ReplyDelete